The Fantasy Baseball Questions In-Box

This is the old area where I took questions. Now there is a link on the top of every page on this blog to where the questions should be posted.

 

—–

 

 

The goal of this post area is for you to ask any fantasy baseball related questions you have. If you are asking a question about your team please give us as much information as possible so we can answer your question with the best possible advice. Some things you should include in questions about your team or us evaluating trade proposals or roster moves or anything really involving your team are league size, roster size, players on your team, what type of scoring your league is using, what categories there are, etc. The more info the better.

I will do my best to answer each question but I also highly encourage any visitor to answer questions as well. Also, feel free to subscribe to the blog too! As this community grows we will gain differing opinions which will lead to better overall discussion and more knowledge gained.

This is a venture that is outside of my everyday job and family is very important to me; so I will answer questions as time presents for me. This is another reason I look forward to a community of blog subscribers forming here to offer their insights on others questions.

Oh, and one more thing. Let us know what your “Twitter @ handle or @ nickname” is on Twitter with each comment you make so others can find you on Twitter!

Tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

16 Responses to The Fantasy Baseball Questions In-Box

  1. Mark Sanders says:

    What do you think is more important;era or batting avg on a team? I always say your teams batting average should always be higher than era. If not,your not gonna win unless your the San Diego Padres. Haha

    • Dan Hilsgen says:

      I agree that your team’s batting average should always be higher than your team’s ERA. You need those runs to win on a consistent basis, no matter how good your pitchers are. I say in the regular season batting average is more important than ERA. In a post-season series, if you have dominant pitchers, then I side with ERA…as long as you have enough bats that can hit some well-timed homers!

  2. ghostwriter21 says:

    Drafted Matt Adams in a H2H 8X7 redraft with OBP and SLG. Do you think it’s just a slow start power wise? I, also, drafted Ryan Howard for insurance. Would you stick with him or do you think Dunn can keep this up without losing too many AB’s?

    • Dan Hilsgen says:

      I would chalk it up to a slow start power wise. I like to give hitters somewhere around 160 to 175 plate appearances before I put a lot of stock in the numbers. His HR/FB rate is awful at 3.8% as of April 29th and his ISO of .135 isn’t anything special either. My gut says it is a slow start and he will find his decent power stroke. I have him in one of my leagues as well and his lack of power has been brutal, but then again, many of my players are lacking their traditional power out of the gates. I just keep telling myself give it another 60 to 80 plate appearances and then look at it closer. I am big on not overreacting.

      I have had an eye on Dunn as well as he is a free agent in one of my leagues. I worry about Dunn’s added competition for at-bats (Abreu, Konerko). I worry about that more than I worry about Howard getting injured again. At this point I would stick with Howard but I would continue to monitor both players and their situations closely.

  3. jtrakas says:

    Simple question, in a points league, would you take a flyer on Koehler or Henderson Alvarez? If so, which one? Finally, can you rank Koehler, Alvarez, Straily, and Drew Hutchison? Thx, and best of luck with the site.

    • Dan Hilsgen says:

      Thanks for stopping on by with the question. Others of course can feel free, and are encouraged to, give their opinion and advice to any post on here.

      I like Alvarez more than Koehler. Both are in the same ballpark in K/9. Both play for the same team. Alvarez had a better ERA last year and their ERA’s are close this year as well.

      What separates Alvarez from Koehler for me is their FIP numbers. FIP is a better future predictor of ERA than, well, ERA is. Koehler’s FIP in 2013 was 4.27 compared to Alvarez’s 3.18 (which, as you may notice, Alvarez’s FIP in 2013 was better than his ERA so he got a bit unlucky in 2013). In 2014 Koehler has a 4.29 FIP thus far compared to Alvarez’s 3.49.

      Ranking the 4 SP:
      1. Drew Hutchison
      2. Henderson Alvarez
      3. Koehler
      4. Dan Straily

      Hutchison last year in AAA and now again in MLB this year has over a 9.45 K/9. His ERA in the minors last year was awful but this year in the majors it is not as awful (4.17). What I key in on is FIP though and his 3.11 isn’t all that bad. Actually, it is in the “Great” range for me.

  4. KY says:

    So I’ve been offered Puig for Darvish in a 15-team roto league. I’m so out of balance between batting and pitching where I’m dominating in K’s and near tops in ERA and WHIP. My staff minus Darvish (and closers) is Lester, Wacha, Kazmir, Chavez, Floyd, and Liriano. With the swap I’d be adding Puig to an outfield of Braun, Choo and Heyward while moving Byrd to the utility spot with Fowler. I’m struggling in R, RBI, TB and OBP (pretty much offense across the board). I’m definitely leaning toward making the trade but wonder if I’m overreacting and should wait for my hitters to come around. I still have Kipnis on the DL and Cabrera stumbling at SS with Howard and Alvarez at the corners.

    I’d appreciate your thoughts and feedback on this. TIA

    • Dan Hilsgen says:

      KY,
      I love analyzing potential trades and roster moves and thanks for providing all that information. The more info. posters provide in their questions the better the advice I and others (anyone can chime in with their thoughts and advice and analysis, etc.) can give. So, thanks again for providing all that information.

      It sounds like you have a sound plan. You are struggling across the board in offense and dominating in pitching. Darvish and Puig are both stud players at their position. I did wonder how Puig would open the season after such an amazing year last year but he has shown himself to be the same player, which is good obviously for fantasy baseball owners of him.

      Let’s look at Puig first. His wOBA (weighted on-base average) of .424 is much higher than his wOBA in 2013 of .398. Puig is in the elite of the elite hitters in wOBA this year and I give him the best rating of “excellent” in that area in 2014. In 2013 he BARELY missed out on an “excellent” rating by me and settled in at the tip-top of the “great” wOBA grade. I like using wOBA to analyze a hitters overall skill level at the plate as it gives more weight to extra base hits, and since I believe one must target power on draft day, giving the most weight to homers is a saber stat I love.

      Puig’s HR/FB ratio, another saber stat I put major stock into, was 21.8% in 2013 and that earned him an “excellent” grade from me. Thus far in 2014 he is at 18.4% and that has him currently graded in the middle of the “great” grade. Both numbers obviously are ones that I would be thrilled with having on my team from a player with his wOBA!

      His BABIP is close to where it was last year and he has enough plate appearances this year that I can now put a bunch of stock in his 2014 numbers. Puig is also striking out less and walking more than last year, which of course is a good sign. His ISO is even better than last year (.237 vs. .215) but both numbers are considered by me to be indicators of solid power hitting.

      In short, Puig is a great addition to help bolster your offense. His 2014 stats to date are :.324 Avg., 7 HR, 19 R, 31 RBI and 4 SB.

      Now lets look at Darvish. When looking at pitchers I like to look at K/BB, FIP and K/9 initially.

      Darvish has a 2014 K/BB ratio of 4.15. A pitcher with a 3.0 K/BB has about a 50% chance to have an ERA lower than 3.40. The higher the K/BB ratio of a pitcher, the more likely he will have an ERA below 3.40. His ERA is at 2.33. After I look at K/BB I then look to FIP. FIP looks only at stats a pitcher can control and is a better measuring stick for them than ERA. This is considered a predictive stat when looking at what a player might do in the future. Darvish has a FIP of 2.59. This FIP puts him in the “excellent” grade area. I like how those numbers fall in line with each other. Darvish is having a better season than last year in FIP. In 2013 he had a 3.28 FIP. Darvish is a strikeout pitcher. We all know that. He is at 10.49 K/9 in 2014 and that gives him an “excellent” grade from me. Obviously Darvish is a great addition for any team. He currently has a stat line of 3 W, 54 SO, 2.33 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

      Let’s now take a look at the remaining pitchers on your staff:

      Lester: 5.08 K/BB ratio in 2014. This number will almost certainly come down as his best career season K/BB ratio was 3.52 in 2009. His FIP is 2.13. His career best FIP was 3.13 in 2010. His K/9 is 10.67. His career best K/9 was in 2009 when he had 9.96. So, in short, he is having a career year thus far. His current stats are: 4 W, 66 SO, 2.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

      Wacha: 4.07 K/BB ratio in 2014. In 2013 it was a 3.42. His FIP is 2.66. His FIP in 2013 was 2.92. His K/9 is 10.84. His K/9 in 2013 was 9.05. I did wonder how Wacha would do to start this season and he has shown himself to be a dominant starting pitcher. His current stats are: 2 W, 57 SO, 2.85 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

      Chavez: 4.25 K/BB ratio in 2014. As a reliever last year it was 2.75. That’s a big jump. His FIP is 3.14. In 2013 it was 3.01 so those are relatively close. His K/9 in 2014 is 8.88 and that is very close to his 8.63 in 2013. He has been an amazing find for fantasy owners, and in this case, makes it easier for you to deal away Darvish for Puig. His current stats are: 3 W, 51 SO, 2.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

      Floyd of course has had a very strong first 13.1 innings this season. Liriano of course has been less than stellar but where he is at in this rotation that is perfectly fine.

      I would not wait to make this trade. I would pull the trigger on Darvish for Puig. You are set up very well with starting pitching and I like the offensive plan you laid out with the rest of your OF and how you plan to use your utility spot. I think you need a Puig combined with a rebound from Kipnis and company to jump start your offense.

      Pull the trigger on the trade is my advice.

      What do other visitors think? Comment and help grow the community here!

  5. Jason says:

    Chris Davis…keep him, trade him or unload him for a free agent?

    • Dan Hilsgen says:

      Sorry for the delay in answering this. Despite the off-day for me from my regular 40-hr a week job I was going through some computer upgrading, etc. Over the course of the season I hope to turn this blog into a daily stopping ground for many fantasy players and the hope is, before I am able to answer a question, someone or many others have already chimed in with their advice and outlook on the question(s) at hand.

      Chris Davis is a tough one. On the one hand, over the past two seasons he hit 86 home runs. That can not just be discounted. Believe it or not, he’s walking more and striking out less this season than he did in either of the previous two. His BABIP is down .035 or .036 points so one can expect that to rise and help out his .231 batting average. But of course, no one drafted the guy for his batting average. His GB% is up roughly 5% over last year but is still below his 2012 number. His LD% is higher than 2013 or 2012. However, his FB% is over 10% lower than in 2013 but it is 1.9% lower than it was in 2012.

      Look, no Chris Davis fantasy owner has been even close to happy with his production this season. I doubt there is a free agent available in most competitive leagues that has a better potential future production than Chris Davis does. His value is likely down for most owners so you likely won’t get more than .75 cents on the dollar for him. You could trade him, however, I would hold onto him and buy into his track record over 1235 plate appearances from 2012-2013 is more representative of the player he currently is than the 128 plate appearances in 2014 that he has had would suggest.

      Good question!

  6. Dan Hilsgen says:

    What would visitors like to see my next blog topic be on? Any suggestions are welcomed!

  7. Ed Harris says:

    Your theory, on expensive free agent closers, falling on their face this year, ie: Jim Johnson, Grant Balfour, and will they return to excellence.

    • Dan Hilsgen says:

      Ed, I have started writing up a blog post on this. Great idea! I plan on finishing it tonight, probably late tonight, and then posting it.

  8. Lisa says:

    Is there a website I can go to and put in my favorite players(major and minor league) and get daily progress updates – 04 Aug

Join The Fantasy Baseball Addict community and leave a reply!